by Peter S. Goodman
Thursday, July 30, 2009

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The New York Times

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J. Emilio Flores for The New York Times
Alfred Crawford wants to sell his house in Los Angeles. As it adds fees, Bank of America has blocked his efforts.

This week, the Obama administration summoned mortgage company executives to Washington to demand they move faster to lower payments for homeowners sliding toward foreclosure. Treasury officials called on the companies to hire and train more people quickly to field applications for relief.

But industry insiders and legal experts say the limited capacity of mortgage companies is not the primary factor impeding the government’s $75 billion program to prevent foreclosures. Instead, it is that many mortgage companies are reluctant to give strapped homeowners a break because the companies collect lucrative fees on delinquent loans.

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Even when borrowers stop paying, mortgage companies that service the loans collect fees out of the proceeds when homes are ultimately sold in foreclosure. So the longer borrowers remain delinquent, the greater the opportunities for these mortgage companies to extract revenue — fees for insurance, appraisals, title searches and legal services.

“It frustrates me when I see the government looking to the servicer for the solution, because it will never ever happen,” said Margery Golant, a Florida lawyer who defends homeowners against foreclosure and who worked in the law department of a major mortgage company, Ocwen Financial. “I don’t think they’re motivated to do modifications at all. They keep hitting the loan all the way through for junk fees. It’s a license to do whatever they want.”

Rich Miller, a governance project manager at Countrywide Financial and Bank of America before he left in January, said Bank of America had been reluctant to modify loans, which hurt the bottom line. The company has been waiting and hoping the economy will improve and delinquent customers will resume making payments, he said.

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“That’s the short-term strategy,” said Mr. Miller, who oversaw training programs at Countrywide, which was bought by Bank of America. He now works as an industry consultant.

Bank of America disputed that characterization. “To think that somehow or other we would jeopardize investor relationships and customer relationships for the very small incremental income we would receive by delaying seems ludicrous,” said Robert V. James, the bank’s senior vice president for mortgage operations and insurance. “It’s not the right thing to do.”

Mortgage companies, some of which are affiliated with the nation’s largest banks, are paid to manage pools of loans owned by investors. The companies typically collect a percentage of the value of the loans they service. They extract their share regardless of whether borrowers are current on their payments. Indeed, their percentage often increases on delinquent loans.

Legal experts say the opportunities for additional revenue in delinquency are considerable, confronting mortgage companies with a conflict between their own financial interest in collecting fees and their responsibility to recoup money for investors who own most mortgages.

“The rules by which servicers are reimbursed for expenses may provide a perverse incentive to foreclose rather than modify,” concluded a recent paper published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

Under the Obama administration’s foreclosure program, a servicer that modifies a loan for a homeowner collects $1,000 from the government, followed by $1,000 a year for each of the next three years. A senior Treasury adviser, Seth Wheeler, said these payments amounted to “meaningful incentives to servicers to help overcome the challenges and competing demands they face in considering and completing loan modifications.” He added that mortgage companies “are contractually obligated to the terms of this program, which require them to offer modifications to qualified borrowers.”

But experts say the administration’s incentives are often outweighed by the benefits of collecting fees from delinquency, and then more fees through the sale of homes in foreclosure.

“If they do a loan modification, they get a few shekels from the government,” said David Dickey, who led a mortgage sales team at Countrywide and Bank of America, leaving in March to start his own mortgage advisory firm, National Home Loan Advocates. By contrast, he said, the road to foreclosure is lined with fees, especially if it is prolonged. “There’s all sorts of things behind the scenes,” he said.

When borrowers fall behind, mortgage companies typically collect late fees reaching 6 percent of the monthly payments.

“For many subprime servicers, late fees alone constitute a significant fraction of their total income and profit,” said Diane E. Thompson, a lawyer for the National Consumer Law Center, in testimony to the Senate Banking Committee this month. “Servicers thus have an incentive to push homeowners into late payments and keep them there: if the loan pays late, the servicer is more likely to profit.”

She cited Ocwen Financial, which reported that nearly 12 percent of its income in 2007 came from fees to borrowers.

Paul A. Koches, Ocwen’s general counsel, said: “We’d prefer that to be zero. The costs associated with our delinquent loans are in every instance in excess of the late fees.”

Data on delinquencies reinforces the notion that servicers are inclined to let problem loans float in purgatory — neither taking control of houses and selling them, nor modifying loans to give homeowners a break.

From June 2008 to June 2009, the number of American mortgages that were 90 days or more delinquent soared from 1.8 million to nearly 3 million, according to the realty research company First American Core Logic. During that period, the number of loans that resulted in the bank taking ownership of the home declined to 245,000, from 333,000.

As a home slides toward foreclosure, mortgage companies pay for many services required to take control of the property and resell it. They typically funnel orders for title searches, insurance policies, appraisals and legal filings to companies they own or share revenue with.

Ocwen established its own title company, Premium Title Services, in part to keep more of the revenue from foreclosures, said Ms. Golant, who helped start it.

“It was hugely profitable,” she said. “Premium Title would charge for the title when it got transferred to Ocwen, then charge again when it got transferred to the new buyer, and then sell title insurance. It was easy money.”

Mortgage companies not only gain this extra business through their subsidiaries, but also collect reimbursement for the payments when the houses are sold.

The investors who own bad mortgages accept whatever is left. Investors typically do not notice how much they give up to the servicers, because fees are embedded in complex sales.

“It’s under the radar,” Ms. Golant said.

Ultimately, the benefits of delinquency erode incentives for mortgage companies to dispose of troubled loans quickly, say experts, allowing distressed houses to decay and fall in value — a fact of little interest to the servicer.

“At the end of the day, it doesn’t matter what the house sells for, because they don’t take that loss,” said Ms. Golant. “Meanwhile, they are collecting all these fees.”

  • On Thursday July 23, 2009, 11:25 am EDT

The average 30-year fixed mortgage slipped to 5.55% from 5.58% the week prior, and the 15-year fixed fell to 4.89% from 4.93%, according to the weekly national survey from Bankrate.com.

Recently rates have been “yo-yoing as corporate earnings announcements and economic data toy with investor sentiment,” the report noted.

On Wednesday Bernanke gave his semi-annual congressional testimony on the state of the economy, saying the central bank will “likely keep interest rates low for an extended period of time,” the Bankrate report noted.

A separate Thursday report showed sales of existing homes disappointed again in June, rising just 3.6%.

Current mortgage rates remain much lower than last year’s levels, when the average 30-year fixed was 6.77%, according to Bankrate.com.

At the current rate of 5.55%, the monthly payment on a $200,000 mortgage would be $1,141.86, or about $158 less than the monthly payment at last year’s rate.

Adjustable-rate mortgages: ARMs “continue to post mixed results,” the report said, with the average 1-year ARM rising to 5.23% from 5.22%, and the 5-year ARM falling to 4.93% from 4.98%.

By Alister Bull

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. existing home sales notched their third monthly rise in June and prices hit their highest level since October, fueling hopes that the housing sector is finally on the mend and will help propel a broader economic recovery.

Other data on Thursday showed a jump in new claims for jobless aid last week, but a decline in claims by those already receiving benefits. The Labor Department said the numbers were distorted by a seasonally unusual pattern of layoffs in the auto sector that should fade in the next week or so.

Some analysts, however, read the jobs report as evidence that employment conditions are stabilizing and said this chimed with other signs that the economy has stopped shrinking.

U.S. stocks surged more than 2 percent on the home sales data. The Dow Jones industrial average punched through the 9,000 mark for the first time since January as investors took heart that a turn in the housing market — seen as a linchpin of the economy — would end a severe U.S. recession and help deliver growth over the rest of the year.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said sales of existing homes in June rose 3.6 percent to an annual rate of 4.89 million units, compared with a downwardly revised 4.72 million pace in May. The June reading topped forecasts for a 4.84 million unit annual pace.

“This is a very good report, as it suggests that the recent momentum in U.S. housing activity may be gathering some traction as U.S. homebuyers take advantage of the very favorable mortgage rates and home prices,” said Millan Mulraine, economics strategist at TD Securities in Toronto.

The NAR said it was the first time the industry had experienced three straight months of gains in existing home sales since early 2004.

“Overall, the news is positive. We have increasing home sales for the third straight month, declining inventory and although prices fell, they declined at a less steep pace,” Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, told a press conference.

“The housing market is healing after four years of recession,” he said.

INVENTORIES DOWN

The inventory of existing homes for sale declined 0.7 percent to 3.82 million in June. The median national home price came in at $181,800, down 15.4 percent from the same period a year ago. But the median price was up 4.0 percent compared with the month before and at the highest level since October.

“The months supply of home for resale is coming down and home prices are falling at a slower pace overall, providing more evidence that the housing market is stabilizing,” said Torsten Slok, a senior economist at Deutsche Bank in New York.

NAR’s Yun said that the inventory of previously owned homes for sale represented 9.4 months’ supply at the current pace of sales, down from 9.8 months’ in May.

This was still above the historic average of six months’ supply, which Yun said was consistent with a national price appreciation of around 4.0 percent.

Seven to eight months’ supply would be consistent with no change in median prices, so the fundamentals still point to lower house prices over the rest of the year, he said.

Freddie Mac, the second biggest U.S. home financing provider, separately said that average 30-year fixed U.S. mortgage rates rose by 0.06 of a percentage point in the past week to 5.20 percent, increasing for the first time in three weeks, but remained sharply lower than a year ago.

JOBS CLAIMS

On the jobs front, the U.S. Labor Department said that seasonally adjusted initial claims for jobless aid rose 30,000 to 554,000 in the week ended July 18, which was roughly in line with analysts’ forecasts.

A department official noted that the data in July was distorted by an unusual pattern of seasonal layoffs, which he expected would fade in the next week or so. Analysts, nonetheless, saw the numbers as positive.

“After 22 consecutive weeks where new applications for unemployment benefits held above 600,000, we have now seen three straight weeks below that threshold, wrote Bernard Baumohl, chief global economist at The Economic Outlook Group in Princeton, New Jersey.

“Evidence continues to mount the economy has finally turned the corner and that the weekly claims data is just one more pointing to a recovery under way,” he said.

Continued claims of people still on jobless aid after an initial week of benefits fell by 88,000 to 6.225 million in the week ended July 11, the latest for which data is available. Analysts expected continued claims of 6.32 million.

The Labor official said there were more layoffs than anticipated based on past experience in adjusted claims in the automotive sector and elsewhere in manufacturing, following two weeks when there had been fewer layoffs.

“Right now it is difficult to say until we are out of this four-week period in July where things really are, but my gut feeling is things are improving but not at a rapid pace,” said Rudy Narvas, a senior analyst at 4cast Ltd in New York.

(Additional reporting by Chris Reese, Lynn Adler and Julie Haviv in New York, editing by Leslie Adler)

ap

Freddie Mac receives additional $6.1B from gov’t

Freddie Mac receives additional $6.1 billion from government to help offset its liabilities

  • On Wednesday July 1, 2009, 10:06 am EDT

NEW YORK (AP) — Battered mortgage giant Freddie Mac received $6.1 billion in new funds from the Treasury Department to help offset its mounting liabilities, according to a regulatory filing submitted Wednesday.

The Federal Housing Finance Agency, which has been operating Freddie Mac since last fall, requested the funds for Freddie Mac after the mortgage firm’s liabilities exceeded its assets by more than $6 billion, according to the filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

After drawing the funds, Freddie Mac has now received $51.7 billion from the Treasury Department and still has access to an additional $149.3 billion to help it finance operations.

In early May, Freddie Mac said it would seek the additional funds to help offset its worsening books as it continues to hemorrhage cash amid the ongoing housing market downturn. It was the third time since Freddie Mac was taken over in September that it has requested funds.

The McLean, Va.-based company posted a loss of $9.9 billion, or $3.14 per share, for the quarter ending March 31. The results were driven by $8.8 billion in credit losses due to soaring delinquency rates and falling home prices, and $7.1 billion in write-downs of the value of its mortgage-backed securities.

Freddie Mac has been among the hardest hit financial firms, along with fellow mortgage guarantor Fannie Mae, amid the housing slump, credit crisis and ongoing recession. Mounting losses led to government takeovers amid concern the collapse of the mortgage companies would throw the housing market into further chaos.

Washington-based Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac play a vital role in the mortgage market by purchasing loans from banks and selling them to investors. Together, the companies own or guarantee almost 31 million home loans worth about $5.5 trillion. That’s about half of all U.S home mortgages.

In Search of the Real Estate Bottom

Industry analyst Joe Kalish of Ned Davis Research says indicators are finally moving in the right direction, but one key factor is missing.

Posted: 06/23/2009

Print

This is our fifth in a series of interviews on the state of the real estate market with Joseph F. Kalish, senior strategist at Ned Davis Research Inc. The series began in 2006, at the height of the real estate bubble.

USAA: Joe, when we spoke in December, you said, “We have not hit bottom, and probably won’t see one until the first quarter of 2009 at the earliest.” What’s your view today?

Joe Kalish: We are much more positive and think that the market is in the process of putting in the bottom. January appears to be the trough in terms of total home sales.

USAA: Are you telling us that the nightmare is over?

Joe Kalish: I want to be careful in the terms that I use. We are confident that the market is in the process of putting in a bottom and that the worst of the declines is behind us. But the fact that sales probably bottomed in January does not mean that prices won’t continue to decline. To the contrary, we expect them to go down nationally another 9% to 12% this year and the recovery process is likely to be a long one, lasting several years.

Let me step back from the conclusions and focus on the evidence. At Ned Davis Research Inc., we became concerned about signs of speculation in the real estate market back in 2005. In 2007, we developed a set of eight indicators on the state of the housing markets and have regularly looked to these indicators to guide us.

When we spoke to you in December, only two of the eight indicators were positive and as I told you then, consumer sentiment was falling apart. Today, only two of the eight indicators are negative, and we’ve seen a sharp turnaround in several key areas.

USAA: Please go through your indicators for us, starting with the positives.

Joe Kalish: First, mortgage rates have fallen to around 5%, the lowest in over 40 years. And along with falling home prices, they have created record affordability. Today, a family earning the median income of $60,000 can afford to buy a $300,000 home, which is well above the current median home price of $170,000 (with 20% down).

The next big positive is new building activity, with both housing starts and permits at a post-war low. Builders are now building only what they can sell, when historically building has exceeded sales by about 400,000 units. Building permits are at less than one-third of their 10-year average, when at previous troughs in the market they were about half.

USAA: Weren’t these indicators also positive last December?

Joe Kalish: Yes, but they are much stronger today. We can’t work off the excess inventory that exists if we are still building new inventory and if people can’t afford to buy homes, so the fact that these indicators are positive is absolutely essential to any bottoming and subsequent recovery.

That brings us to our next indicator, the rate of decline in home sales, which bottomed in January and has since moved in a narrow range. Pending homes sales have turned higher, and when we get the existing home sales data for May, it could top last year’s peak month.

Perhaps the best news is that the markets that have been hit the hardest — Nevada, California, Arizona and Florida — are starting to clear. Sales are up 117% in Nevada over last year; 81% in California; 50% in Arizona, and 25% in Florida. These four “boom and bust” states accounted for one out of four sales nationally in the first quarter.

Of course, credit conditions have vastly improved, as the spreads for mortgages relative to Treasury’s have narrowed considerably.

Another indicator that wasn’t in our original list, but turned positive, is homebuilder confidence. The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index bottomed in January, the same month that sales troughed, which is exactly what happened in the last major housing market downturn in 1991.

So we have five positive indicators, and one neutral one, the S&P Homebuilders Index. This index of homebuilders’ stock prices has gone higher in the big stock market rally since March 9, but it hasn’t broken out in a way to signal all clear.

USAA: That leaves two indicators, which must be negative.

Joe Kalish: Yes, the picture isn’t all rosy. The first problem is lack of end-user demand, as evidenced by the Mortgage Bankers’ Association index of mortgage applications for home purchases, which doesn’t include refinancing. While mortgage finance is obviously in much better shape than last December, the Index is near 10-year lows and down nearly 30% from a year ago. We need to see this pick up and break the downtrend.

Finally, the inventory-to-sales ratio remains swollen. There’s roughly a nine-month supply, well above the six months you would normally see in a healthy market. Unfortunately these nine months don’t include shadow supply from owners who want to sell but don’t have to, and therefore are waiting for prices to rise.

USAA: What’s the big picture moving forward? What should USAA members take away from this conversation?

Joe Kalish: The worst may be over, but recovery will likely take a long time. The patient is out of the ICU because prices have come down far enough for investors to step in and buy. That doesn’t mean the patient is healthy enough to leave the hospital. About 50% of all sales are distressed homes, such as short sales and foreclosures and many of the investors buying these homes aren’t moving into them. We still have 17% more housing units in the country than we have households, a number that needs to get down to about 14% to correct the excess supply.

Overall, sales bottom before prices. Should our call that sales bottomed in January prove correct, prices will probably fall another 9% to 12% by the end of the year. Real house prices are back to the 40-year trend line, so we’ve definitely squeezed the speculation out of the market.

In terms of what gives us a truly healthy patient, it’s employment. As we look back to previous downturns, what we see is housing prices stop falling when the unemployment rate peaks. When workers no longer feel they are going to lose their jobs, they are willing to take advantage of low prices and low mortgage rates. That leads to stability in pricing. In terms of prices actually rising faster than inflation, it happens when labor markets get tight.

USAA: So we still have a way to go.

Joe Kalish: Absolutely, but housing markets are beginning to clear, value is returning to the markets. This is neither the deepest nor the longest downturn on record. Even in normal cycles it takes a long time for the market to restore equilibrium.

A new Federal Housing Administration program will let first-time home buyers use their $8,000 tax credit for down payments or closing costs

The days of home buying with little or no money down may be back—this time thanks to Uncle Sam.

Blamed for contributing to the housing bubble, zero-down-payment loans largely vanished when the market crashed and Congress blocked seller financing for government-backed loans. Now the federal government will be forking over cash at closing.

Buyers who haven’t owned a home for three years or longer are eligible for an $8,000 tax credit, thanks to a provision in this winter’s stimulus package. Now, under a little-noticed program announced May 29, the Federal Housing Administration will steer the funds to cover closing costs directly—in some cases even offsetting the 3.5% minimum down payment FHA loans require. That’s enough to cover most or all of the down payment and fees for homes up to the U.S. median price, now about $169,000.

Officials hope “monetizing” the tax credit will help revive the housing market, because meeting closing costs is one of the biggest hurdles for new home buyers. The National Association of Home Builders predicts it will add 40,000 to the 160,000 sales originally expected to be spurred by the tax credit. Supporters say the move avoids the worst effects of seller financing, in that the credit is essentially the buyer’s money, and government assistance doesn’t give sellers a perverse incentive to inflate prices in an unsustainable manner.

Does Down Payment Aid Boost Defaults?

But while seller financing is riskiest, buyers who get down payment help have higher default rates, whether the money comes from government or other sources. That was shown in research by Austin Kelly—who oversees risk modeling at Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac for the FHA—published late last year in the Journal of Housing Research. FHA data on foreclosures show the same pattern.

The new program lets home buyers apply the tax-credit advance against the FHA’s 3.5% down payment requirement only if the loan is handled through a state housing-finance agency; otherwise the tax advance may only be used to cover closing costs, to increase the down payment, or to buy down the mortgage’s interest rate. The FHA already allows down payment assistance from family, employers, and governmental agencies, but generally bars it from sellers, mortgage writers, or others who would benefit financially from the transaction.

Ultimately, critics complain that the new program transforms a tax credit meant to reward sidelined buyers for taking the plunge into a subsidy that could goose sales to those who otherwise couldn’t buy a home—and have little at stake if it doesn’t work out. “Didn’t we just have this big housing bust where people bought houses they can’t afford?” says Peter Schiff, president of brokerage firm Euro Pacific Capital and an economic adviser to Representative Ron Paul’s (R-Tex.) long-shot 2008 Presidential campaign. “We don’t want people buying houses without using their own money.”

Supporters counter that the benefits to the housing market and economy outweigh the risk to taxpayers. David Crowe, chief economist for the homebuilder’s group, says most buyers will stay in their homes if possible, even without much money at risk. “As long as they can make the payment they’ll stay, even if they’re under water,” he says. Still, he acknowledges that the new program “increases their likelihood of default, there’s no question.”

Francis is a correspondent in BusinessWeek‘s Washington bureau.

The recent surge in mortgage rates hasn’t put a crimp in the housing recovery so far, but some economists think it could if rates head much higher.

The 30-year fixed rate jumped to an average 5.32 percent this week, up from 4.91 percent the previous week, according to Freddie Mac. Refinancings are already down sharply due to the higher rates, but home purchases continue to recover slowly.

In fact, the rise in mortgage rates in recent weeks is causing some homebuyers to jump now before rates head any higher.

“I think that as rates look like they are going up, there’s a rush to buy,” says Diane Saatchi, senior vice president and associate broker with the Corcoran Group. “In the short run, there’s an increase in activity to lock in rates. We’re seeing a bit of a frenzy to buy.”

But if mortgage rates continue to climb, that could slow any housing recovery says Mark Zandi, chief economist with Moody’s.

“If rates rise any more for any period, that will significanlty hurt housing sales and the housing market,” says Zandi. “I think fixed mortgage rates around 5 percent will entice buyers, If they are over 5 percent, that will hurt.”

Still, Greg McBride, senior analyst at bankrate.com says home buyers don’t need to panic-at least for now.

“The move up in rates is not a barrier to affordability,” says McBride. “Mortgage rates are still at historical lows and coupled with much lower home prices, they still provide home buyers with tremendous opportunities.”

On Tuesday, the National Association of Realtors on Tuesday reported that pending home sales, based on new sales contracts, rose 6.7 percent in April, the biggest jump since October 2001.

There are financial incentives for people to buy now, says Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors.

“Many first-time home buyers are taking advantage of the $8,000 tax break from the Obama administration, which runs out on November 1st of this year,” says Yun.

  • Slideshow: Highest End Real Estate

One area feeling the immediate impact of higher rates is refinancing says Alan Rosenbaum, president of Guardhill Financial, a mortgage banker and brokerage company.

“Right now in the mortgage business, refinancing has been by far the most dominant action,” says Rosenbaum. “But with higher rates, refinancing homes is being hurt. Low rates puts money in people’s pockets and that’s what homeowners are looking for.”

The numbers back up Rosenbaum. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage applications, which includes both purchase and refinance loans, for the week ended May 29 decreased 16.2 percent to 658.7.

The big difference between rates of last year and even last week comes down to the

10 year Treasury note.

Fixed mortgage rates are tied into the yield of the 10 year note. If the yield goes up-and the price of the note goes down-so too do interest rates.

A look at the numbers over the last year shows how rates are heading up:

Rate/June 2008 Percentage
30 yr. 4.91%
15 yr. 4.53%
5/1yr. 4.82%

Rate/June 2009Percentage
30 yr.5.32%
15 yr. 4.92%
5/1yr4.61%

Analysts say an improving stock market is raising yields and rates. “The ten-year yield is rising quite strongly the last couple of weeks,” says Yun. “As the economy gets stronger and money moves from bonds to stocks, that will increase mortgage rates.”

And there’s the problem of mortgage-backed securities, which helped create the housing crisis and are still affecting it. Like the 10 year Treasury, they help set mortgage rates.

  • Slideshow: Where the $200,000+ Crowd Lives

Defaults on all the subprime home loans led to big losses for MBS investors and banks. In turn, lenders have been requiring tougher underwriting standards and wider spreads on new mortgages.

The Federal Reserve is in the midst of purchasing $300 billion in Treasuries and $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities in order to to unclog credit markets and to keep interest rates lower.

“The government needs to keep buying those MBS investments as they do the 10-year notes,” Rosenbaum says. “That allows lenders to price the loans lower.”

Analysts say home buyers will see interest rates rise with a better economy and a need to control inflation.

“You can’t assume rates will stay at rock bottom forever,” says NAR’s Yun. “I think five and a half percent could be the norm by the second half 2009.”

Rosenbaum sees them going even higher.

“I think they could be a full percent higher at the end of the year,” says Rosenbaum. “The more money the government prints, the higher risk of inflation and higher rates.”

Still, Yun says the need for housing will keep sales heading up despite the rising rates.

“It’s hard to predict but I think there’s a pent up need for housing that’s going to emerge,” says Yun. “Even with rates at 5.5 percent in 2010, I don’t see it slowing down housing sales.”

Industry experts say it’s not really current interest rates that are a hurdle for home buyers.

“Down payments and the ability to sell existing homes are the main impediment for home buyers now,” says Bankrate’s McBride. “There’s also the more stringent underwriting rules. If you can get past those, mortgage rates are not a problem.”

  • Special Report: Investor Spring Cleaning

“With home prices lower and rates still lower than ever, people just need to figure out what they can afford,” says Rosenbaum.

Corcoran Group’s Saatchi warns that many perspective home buyers are losing sight of what they are trying to accomplish when it comes to getting the best rates and prices.

“Don’t get caught in the trappings of the negotiations and lose the whole package,” says Saatchi. “People want a great deal and they forget about the house they’re trying to buy.”

Pending US home sales rise more than expected in April, biggest monthly jump in nearly 8 years

  • On Tuesday June 2, 2009, 11:02 am EDT

WASHINGTON (AP) — The number of U.S. homebuyers who agreed to purchase a previously occupied home in April posted the largest monthly jump in nearly eight years, a sign that sales are finally coming to life after a long and painful slump.

The National Association of Realtors said Tuesday its seasonally adjusted index of sales contracts signed in April surged 6.7 percent to 90.3, far exceeding analysts’ forecasts. It was the biggest monthly jump since October 2001, when pending sales rose 9.2 percent.

Economists were encouraged by the report, and stock indexes advanced modestly.

“This is yet another positive indication that the bottoming process is forming,” Jennifer Lee, an economist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a note to clients. “Now if only prices would stabilize.”

Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters expected the index would edge up to 85 from a reading of 84.6 in March. Typically there is a one- to two-month lag between a contract and a done deal, so the index is a barometer for future existing home sales.

In early trading, the Dow Jones industrial average added about 30 points to 8,751, and at times traded above 8,776.39, its finish for 2008.

Still, some economists wonder whether rising mortgage rates will dampen home sales. Nationwide average rates for 30-year-fixed rate mortgages are around 5.3 percent this week compared with about 5 percent a week earlier, according to Bankrate.com.

And analysts cautioned prices will take longer to stabilize, because of the glut of unsold properties on the market.

“Even if sales volumes rebound, home prices will keep falling under the weight of the massive inventory overhang,” wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics.

The Realtors’ index was 3.2 percent above last year’s levels and has risen for three straight months after hitting a record low in January. A nearly 33 percent sales increase in the Northeast and a 9.8 percent jump in the Midwest led the overall surge. Sales contracts rose 1.8 percent in April from a month earlier in the West, but fell 0.2 percent in the South.

The big boost likely reflects the impact of a new $8,000 tax credit for first-time homebuyers that was included in the economic stimulus bill signed by President Barack Obama in February. Since buyers need to finish their purchases by Nov. 30 to claim the credit, “we expect greater activity in the months ahead,” Lawrence Yun, the Realtors’ chief economist, said in a statement.

Still, Yun cautioned that the pending sales data is more volatile than in the past because many sellers need banks to agree to take less than the original mortgage — a so-called “short sale.” That process is often difficult, time-consuming and can wind up falling apart before the deal closes.

The Federal Housing Administration last week released details of a plan in which borrowers who use FHA loans can get advances from lenders that let them effectively receive the credit in advance, so they don’t have to wait to get the money from the Internal Revenue Service.

Completed home sales rose 2.9 percent to an annual rate of 4.68 million in April from a downwardly revised pace of 4.55 million in March, the Realtors’ group said last week.

Sales of inexpensive foreclosures and other distressed low-end properties have even sparked bidding wars in places like Las Vegas, Phoenix and Miami. But the market for high-end properties remains at a virtual standstill.

The national median sales price in April plunged more than 15 percent to $170,200, from $201,300 in the same month last year. That was the second largest yearly price drop on record, according to the Realtors’ group.

by Walter Updegrave
Monday, June 1, 2009
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Question: I’m planning to invest some money in the stock market, but I’m wondering whether I should buy mutual funds or individual stocks. Which do you think is better? And in the event I decide to go with stocks, which ones do you think are really good buys now? –Monique Thompson

Answer: The stocks vs. funds issue has always been a biggie for individual investors. But the question of whether you should go it alone or turn over your money to a mutual fund manager who’ll invest it for you is even more critical today, if only because this uncertain economy and volatile market make the rewards for success and the cost of failure that much higher.

Clearly, the answer will vary from person to person, depending on such factors as how much money you have to invest, how well versed you are in the ways of the financial markets and how much time and effort you want to put into your finances.

It’s also clear that each approach has advantages and drawbacks. With mutual funds, you get convenience, a diversified portfolio and the security of knowing that you have an experienced stock picker working full time on your behalf.

On the other hand, you have less control over your investments – not just which ones you choose, but when you recognize gains. That can be an issue when it comes to taxes. If the fund manager sells enough shares at a profit so that the fund has realized capital gains in a given year, you’ll have to pay tax on a share of those gains even if you haven’t sold shares of the fund (assuming you hold the fund in a taxable account).

If you decide to buy stocks on your own, you definitely have more control over what you own and when you sell. But you’ve also got to be willing to devote more time and attention to your investments.

So as I see it, the decision to go with stocks or funds comes down to a realistic assessment of how much you want to make your own investing decisions and your ability to handle that responsibility. Here are three questions you might ask yourself to help you with that assessment.

Am I willing (and able) to analyze companies’ prospects? You don’t have to be a rocket scientist to identify promising stocks. But you should be able to evaluate a company’s finances. What sort of earnings growth is it likely to achieve? What’s the value of its assets? Is it vulnerable because of a heavy debt load or a weakness in its product lineup?

But even that’s not enough. You’ve also got to be able to assess whether it’s selling at an attractive price. If a company has solid earnings and an impeccable balance sheet but is so popular that it’s trading at a bloated share price, buying it may be an invitation to subpar returns.

There are many ways you can develop stock-picking skills. CNNMoney’s Money 101 section has easy-to-read lessons on everything from assessing stocks to putting together a portfolio. The American Association of Individual Investors also offers lots of information about stock investing [www.aaii.com/basics/] that’s geared toward beginners, as does the Learn [www.weseed.com/learn/learn.html] section of relatively new site called WeSeed.

But until you at least familiarize yourself with the basics of stock investing, stick with funds (or at least keep all but a tiny portion of your money in funds).

Am I ready to devote the time and effort to monitor my holdings? As we know from recent experience, the investing world can change dramatically. I certainly don’t want to suggest you need to be buying or selling stocks every time the market or the economy reverses course or the fortunes change for a company whose stock you own. But there may be times when you should react.

If a company’s potential has dimmed, you may want to sell some or all of your shares and plow the proceeds into a firm that has a rosier future. Conversely, if one of your stocks has racked up such huge gains that it now represents an outsize percentage of your portfolio, you may consider selling some shares to avoid having too much riding on one stock.

There may also be times when you can turn the tax system to your advantage, say, by selling shares that are trading for less than you paid for them and then using the loss to trim your tax bill.

Keeping an eye on your portfolio and making occasional adjustments isn’t a 24/7 job. But you should be prepared to spend at least a few hours a week tending to your holdings. If you’re not disposed to put in that amount of time – and possibly more during periods of upheaval – then you’re better off in funds, which generally require less attention.

Do I have enough money to make it worthwhile to choose stocks on my own? Here, mutual funds offer a clear advantage for most investors. By using a tool such as Morningstar’s Fund Screener, you can easily find funds that allow you in for a minimum initial investment of as little as $500, even less in some cases. Many of the funds on our Money 70 list of recommended funds also require a minimum of $1,000 or less. And once you’re in, you can typically add to your account in increments of $50 to $250.

If you want a reasonably diversified portfolio of stocks, on the other hand, you’re talking about a much larger investment. You don’t have to buy in round lots of 100 shares as was the case back in the day. But at the same tie you don’t want brokerage commissions to eat up your returns. So even if you figure on paying a modest $10-per-transaction brokerage fee, you’d probably want to invest a minimum of $1,000 per stock in order to prevent your costs from exceeding 1% of the amount you invest. (Remember, you’ll also have to pay a fee when you sell.) Assuming you’ll need at least 20 stocks to create a balanced portfolio, you’re talking about investing in the neighborhood of $20,000 to $25,000, if not more.

You can always invest smaller amounts, either initially or when adding shares. But the less you invest, the higher the percentage of your return that gets eaten up by brokerage fees.

One final tip: If you’re relying on personal finance columnists or cable TV pundits for stock picks, then my feeling is that you probably shouldn’t be in stocks at all.

The point to buying individual shares is that you think you bring something to the table that adds value and can boost your return – in-depth research, expertise at valuing securities, a sense of discipline that prevents you from buying or selling on emotion.

But if all you’re going to do is buy on someone else’s say so – in other words, substitute their judgment for yours – you’ll save yourself a lot of time, energy and money by acknowledging that upfront and sticking to funds.

Copyrighted, CNNMoney. All Rights Reserved.

U.S. home builder sentiment rises in May

  • On Monday May 18, 2009, 1:01 pm EDT

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – U.S. homebuilder sentiment jumped to its highest level in eight months in May, a private survey showed on Monday, supporting views that the three-year housing slump might be close to an end.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose to 16 from 14 in April, in line with market expectations.

The NAHB attributed the second consecutive monthly increase in the gauge — which measures builder confidence in the market for newly built, single family homes — to “the best home buying conditions of a lifetime.”

“This continued increase indicates that home builders feel we’re at or near the bottom of the market and that positive signs lie ahead for builders and potential home buyers, provided that builder access to production credit significantly improves,” said NAHB chief economist David Crowe.

Other housing indicators have recently shown a sharp slowing in the pace of the market’s decline, raising optimism a bottom was not too far away.

The collapse of domestic house prices and the subsequent global credit crisis were the main catalysts for the U.S. recession, now in its 17th month.

The report also showed two out of three subindexes of the Housing Market Index rising in May. The current sales conditions gauge climbed two points to 14, while the sales expectations measure for the next six months rose three points to 27. The traffic of prospective buyers index was unchanged at 13 in May.

(Reporting by Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Andrea Ricci)


Bill Jones

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